It is the weakest time of the year for stock prices, and there are some fundamental reasons for this, but trade what you see, not what you think.

Top-down sentiment data and bottom-up fundamental data are giving similar indications for the overall stock market, but all you really need to do is follow the path of least resistance.

It isn't the monthly jobs report that is important, but rather the revisions… but so is GDP

It probably isn't different this time, and the jobs report could confirm it, but there are indications that things are, in fact, different, and businesses are seeing it.

Roughly 20% of the companies reporting earnings this week are AI-related names. These stocks have generally lagged post-earnings, which has created some worry among investors ahead of the results.

Overall, stock prices are weaker outside of earnings season than during earnings season, but what they tell us during earnings season changes that.

Investors have been selling the news this earnings season, resulting in the weakest near-term Post-earnings Announcement Drift in three years. That hasn't been the tell you might think.

Seasonality becomes less favorable in the second half of earnings season now that everyone knows what to expect, but the story is still there.

Earnings guidance remains the story this earnings season, but seasonality becomes less favorable just as the payroll data hits on Friday.

Earnings guidance is the primary story to start earnings season, and is potentially telling us more about the cycle than just upcoming earnings.