A Fed hike is not necessarily bearish if productivity and earnings stay strong. For now, JNK and SPY support need to hold.

The market remains bullish for now, supported by rising earnings estimates and improving money flows, but weakening breadth and softer guidance are creating more risk beneath the surface.

Friday's jobs report tests a market that's fundamentally supported but technically fragile. Beneath that, last week's earnings calls showed the AI buildout is still supply-constrained even as spending finally starts climbing into software.

Sentiment has improved while the underlying price action has softened.

The S&P 500 rallied 3% during earnings season, but earnings estimates have been revised higher by 8%.

The jobs numbers disappointed once again, but the market doesn’t seem to be buying it.

Last month’s jobs report surprised to the downside, but data and recent management commentary show continued underlying strength in the labor market.

There is more than one way to measure sentiment, and they aren't all giving the same signal.

Despite the hawkish tone, new Fed Chairman Warsh is doing the opposite of what Greenspan did in his first couple of months.

Earnings season is beginning with mixed signals, as weakening guidance contrasts with resilient market breadth and an AI investment cycle that continues to surprise to the upside.