It is time to start looking ahead to earnings season, with the Banks kicking things off in less than two weeks.

Industrial Production in the U.S. has finally surpassed 2018 highs, which supports the case for a sustained bull market, but for now, this appears to be front-running tariffs.

It is all about sentiment for now.

There was another time when a disappointing trade deficit coincided with the overall stock market hitting the 200-day moving average.

The coming tariffs have caused a pullforward that is likely to become a strong tailwind for GDP starting now

It doesn't necessarily mean that a recessionary bear market is coming, but the price action during the peak of fourth quarter earnings season is what we've seen before every recession of the past 60 years.

The Democrats were the "dumb money" in the last presidential cycle, at least when it came to inflation expectations, but now there has been a significant shift in expectations by party, and the trade is getting crowded.

We haven't gotten much of a fluctuation in investor sentiment over the past year, so the typical signals have been void, but the lack of a signal still gives a statistical edge.

The increased optimism among consumers and businesses since the election is now starting to show up in the macroeconomic data.

Earnings estimates are starting to turn higher, and the early reporters point to continued economic strength, while DeepSeek creates potential new winners.