The Democrats were the "dumb money" in the last presidential cycle, at least when it came to inflation expectations, but now there has been a significant shift in expectations by party, and the trade is getting crowded.

We haven't gotten much of a fluctuation in investor sentiment over the past year, so the typical signals have been void, but the lack of a signal still gives a statistical edge.

The increased optimism among consumers and businesses since the election is now starting to show up in the macroeconomic data.

Earnings estimates are starting to turn higher, and the early reporters point to continued economic strength, while DeepSeek creates potential new winners.

Is it different this time, or are we just not there yet? Either way, the trade for now is the same.

The low-income consumer continues to struggle. While things have picked up since the election for the higher-income consumer, a quarter of GDP growth has just gone up in flames.

Market performance in 2025 will likely depend on whether AI productivity can offset cyclical pressures.

There is a calendar shift that should impact retail sales numbers for both November and December, but early checks do little to take away from the January Effect.

If this is 1995, as Dan Ives said, then it is important to note what Greenspan thought about 1996 and 1997... especially following what Salesforce just told us.

Resiliency hasn't gone away, and even the low-income consumer may be finding some strength.