As expected, employment came in below the consensus estimate, but despite the slowing data points, it still doesn't quite indicate a recession

The indication the markets gave us last summer is now in play just as we get the first jobs report after the BLS' revisions.

The BLS revisions weaken the story, but not enough to change it... yet.

The AI trade isn't dead, and the recent price action appears to have caught people on the wrong side

The recent price action gives us a technical setup that is consistent with sentiment and the fundamentals, but it isn't a great setup.

The rally in the Japanese Yen is just another piece of the cycle we've seen before, but just because everything is falling in place doesn't mean it's over yet.

The U.S. labor market surprised to the upside each month over the past year against softening employment data, but now the data has improved ahead of the FOMC announcement and this Friday’s jobs report.

Last quarter, companies talked of an acceleration in the second half of the year. The start of earnings season has companies telling us the fuel is there for just such strength.

Breadth has recovered with a surge in smallcaps, and the Regional Banks, where short interest suggests some crowded trades ahead of earnings.

On January 7, 2008, in WR 180, we were among the first to declare the 2008/2009 recession had started in December 2007. More than a decade later, Claudia Sahm, at the Federal Reserve, claimed our same method as the Sahm Rule, and now it is warning of a recession again. This time, though, there is at least one thing truly different.